Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Lusail City to win @ 1.85 – our chance 63% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLusail City to win ✗63% · @1.85
Double chanceLusail City or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗31% · fair 3.23
Al Waab vs Lusail City preview and prediction
The match
The QSL Cup sees Al Waab take on Lusail City on Tuesday 29 September, kicking off at 18:15 (WAT).
Form guide
Al Waab's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Al Mesaimeer 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lusail City's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Al-Markhiya 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Al Waab arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.0 goals: 0.2 for Al Waab and 0.8 for Lusail City. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Waab 18%, draw 19%, Lusail City 63%.
Safer route: Lusail City or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Lusail City to win at 1.85 – 63% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lusail City or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Al Waab 0–0 Lusail City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Waab18%fair 5.59 · @3.40
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.30
Lusail City63%fair 1.60 · @1.85
1.00Expected goals
0.16Al Waab xG
0.84Lusail City xG
44%Both score
8%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–037%
0–131%
0–213%
1–06%
1–15%
0–34%
From our goals model: Al Waab 0.2 – 0.8 Lusail City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lusail City to win✗
63%
1.60
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Lusail City or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
66%
1.51
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
31%
3.23
–
Form
Al Waab – last 6
WDWWWW
22 Sep
@ Al Mesaimeer
1–0
W
6 Sep
vs Qatar U23
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Al Shamal II
2–0
W
25 Aug
vs Al Rayyan SC B
1–0
W
30 Apr
@ Al Kharaitiyat
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Al Bidda SC
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Lusail City – last 6
WDWDLL
21 Sep
vs Al-Markhiya
1–0
W
11 Sep
@ Al-Gharafa
0–0
D
4 Sep
vs Al Wakrah
4–0
W
28 Aug
@ Al Ahli Doha
3–3
D
20 Aug
@ Al-Rayyan SC
0–1
L
24 Jul
@ Den Bosch
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Waab and Lusail City.
What is the prediction for Al Waab vs Lusail City?
Our pick is Lusail City or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Al Waab vs Lusail City?
On our numbers Al Waab have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Lusail City 63%.
How many goals will there be in Al Waab vs Lusail City?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Waab vs Lusail City?
Our predicted score is Al Waab 0–0 Lusail City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.
When is Al Waab vs Lusail City?
Al Waab vs Lusail City (QSL Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Al-Khor0
UMM Salal2
Al-Markhiya1
Al Ahli Doha1