J League Cup · Japan · Sunpro Alwin
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 2.1 – 2.4 Albirex Niigata expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Albirex Niigata shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 34% for Matsumoto Yamaga.
Matsumoto Yamaga have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.3 per game. Albirex Niigata have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded. Albirex Niigata come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 4.5 goals (2.1 for Matsumoto Yamaga, 2.4 for Albirex Niigata). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–2 (7%), 1–2 (7%), 2–1 (6%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.60 is better than our fair price of 1.51, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Albirex Niigata to win ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | 2.30 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.30 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.60 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 94% | 1.07 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 83% | 1.21 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Half-time result | Albirex Niigata ahead at half-time ✗ | 38% | 2.64 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Albirex Niigata / FT Albirex Niigata ✗ | 29% | 3.48 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 7% | 14.92 | – |
Form
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Tochigi SC | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Roasso Kumamoto | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Sagamihara | 1–3 | L |
| 9 Sep | vs Shonan Bellmare | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Osaka | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | @ Kitakyushu | 1–1 | D |
Albirex Niigata – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Blaublitz Akita | 2–2 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Jubilo Iwata | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Montedio Yamagata | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Yokohama FC | 0–5 | L |
| 2 Sep | @ Thespakusatsu Gunma | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Iwaki | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Albirex Niigata.
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Sanfrecce Hiroshima2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Albirex Niigata 44%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata (J League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.