Good pick · fair odds 1.65 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultChina to win ✗61% · @1.62
Double chanceChina or draw ✗86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.90
China vs Tajikistan preview and prediction
The match
Tajikistan travel to Longxing Football Stadium in the Friendlies on Tuesday 6 October (12:35 WAT) to face China.
Form guide
China's last 5: LLWDW Most recently they lost to Palestine 0–5 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 5. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Tajikistan's last 5: LLDWD Most recently they lost to Palestine 2–4 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for China and 1.0 for Tajikistan. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: China 61%, draw 25%, Tajikistan 14%.
Safer route: China or draw (86%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was China to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: China 2–0 Tajikistan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
China61%fair 1.65 · @1.62
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.50
Tajikistan14%fair 7.17 · @4.80
3.10Expected goals
2.12China xG
0.98Tajikistan xG
56%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–010%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: China 2.1 – 1.0 Tajikistan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
China to win✗
61%
1.65
1.62
Double chance
China or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.23
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
China ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT China / FT China✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.90
–
Form
China – last 6
LLWDWL
2 Oct
vs Palestine
0–5
L
27 Sep
vs New Zealand
0–3
L
24 Sep
vs Maldives
3–0
W
9 Jun
vs Thailand
0–0
D
5 Jun
@ Singapore
2–1
W
31 Mar
vs Cameroon
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tajikistan – last 5
LLDWD
28 Sep
vs Palestine
2–4
L
23 Sep
@ Azerbaijan
0–1
L
9 Jun
vs India
1–1
D
5 Jun
vs India
3–1
W
31 Mar
vs Philippines
1–1
D
1.4Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between China and Tajikistan.
Our pick is China to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win China vs Tajikistan?
On our numbers China have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tajikistan 14%.
How many goals will there be in China vs Tajikistan?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for China vs Tajikistan?
Our predicted score is China 2–0 Tajikistan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is China vs Tajikistan?
China vs Tajikistan (Friendlies) kicks off on Tuesday 6 October 2026 at 12:35 (West Africa Time) at Longxing Football Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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