Penarol travel to face Danubio in the Copa Uruguay on Thursday 24 September (19:30 WAT).
Form guide
Danubio's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Wanderers 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Penarol's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat Cerro 2–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 5 September 2026, finished Danubio 0–4 Penarol. Across their last 2 meetings Danubio have won 0, Penarol 1, with 1 draw and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.2 for Danubio and 1.8 for Penarol. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Danubio 27%, draw 24%, Penarol 49%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 2.00.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 55% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.81, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Danubio 1–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Danubio27%fair 3.71 · @3.50
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @2.80
Penarol49%fair 2.03 · @2.05
3.00Expected goals
1.24Danubio xG
1.76Penarol xG
55%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
2–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Danubio 1.2 – 1.8 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Danubio vs Penarol?
On our numbers Danubio have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Penarol 49%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Penarol?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Danubio 1–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Penarol?
Danubio vs Penarol (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Thursday 24 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cerro1
Deportivo Maldonado2
Wanderers1
Cerrito3
Atletico Torque3
Atenas3