Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 58% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✓53% · @2.00
Double chanceDeportivo Maldonado or draw ✓77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.14
Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado preview and prediction
The match
Cerro host Deportivo Maldonado in the Copa Uruguay on Thursday 24 September, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Cerro's last 5: LWLWD Most recently they lost to Penarol 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Deportivo Maldonado's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Juventud 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Maldonado arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.0 for Cerro and 1.7 for Deportivo Maldonado. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Deportivo Maldonado or draw (77%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 58% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Deportivo Maldonado or draw – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Cerro 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro23%fair 4.31 · @3.50
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @2.88
Deportivo Maldonado53%fair 1.87 · @2.00
2.75Expected goals
1.04Cerro xG
1.71Deportivo Maldonado xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
0–111%
1–210%
0–29%
1–07%
0–06%
From our goals model: Cerro 1.0 – 1.7 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win✓
53%
1.87
2.00 ▲
Double chance
Deportivo Maldonado or draw✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado✗
33%
3.07
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.14
–
Form
Cerro – last 6
LWLWDD
19 Sep
vs Penarol
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Progreso
3–1
W
10 Sep
vs Cerrito
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Wanderers
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Boston River
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
WLWWWL
19 Sep
vs Juventud
2–0
W
13 Sep
@ Defensor Sporting
0–1
L
10 Sep
vs Wanderers
4–1
W
5 Sep
vs Wanderers
2–0
W
2 Sep
@ Cerrito
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Juventud
0–2
L
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerro and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Deportivo Maldonado or draw with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Cerro have a 23% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Maldonado 53%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Cerro 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado (Copa Uruguay) kicks off on Thursday 24 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Wanderers1
Cerrito3
Danubio1
Penarol1
Atletico Torque3
Atenas3