Monaco vs SC Freiburg prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Monaco 2.3 – 2.2 SC Freiburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Monaco and SC Freiburg on our numbers – 42% for the home side, 36% for the visitors and 23% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Monaco have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. SC Freiburg have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 4.5 goals (2.3 for Monaco, 2.2 for SC Freiburg). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–2 (7%), 2–1 (7%), 1–2 (6%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 70% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is better than our fair price of 1.43, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Monaco to win ✓ | 42% | 2.41 | 2.20 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.29 | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 70% | 1.43 | 1.62 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 94% | 1.07 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | – |
| Half-time result | Monaco ahead at half-time ✓ | 36% | 2.76 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Monaco / FT Monaco ✓ | 27% | 3.71 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 7% | 15.29 | – |
Form
Monaco – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Lorient | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Oct | @ CSKA Sofia | 2–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Toulouse | 2–2 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs Lens | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Strasbourg | 1–1 | D |
| 4 Sep | @ Paris Saint Germain | 2–1 | W |
SC Freiburg – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Bayer Leverkusen | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs FK Jablonec | 3–2 | W |
| 11 Oct | vs FC Schalke 04 | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Oct | vs FC Luzern | 4–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monaco and SC Freiburg.
UEFA Europa Conference League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Lugano | 3 | +7 | 9 |
| 2 |  Panathinaikos | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 |  Twente | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 4 |  Monaco | 3 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Brighton | 3 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  Brann | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  FC Copenhagen | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 8 |  Universitatea Craiova | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Mjallby AIF | 3 | +4 | 7 |
| 10 |  St. Truiden | 3 | +3 | 7 |
| 11 |  Ajax | 3 | +6 | 6 |
| 12 |  Trabzonspor | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 13 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 3 | +1 | 6 |
| 14 |  SC Freiburg | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 15 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 16 |  Atalanta | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 17 |  SC Braga | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 18 |  Gent | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 |  Riga | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 |  FC Thun | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 21 |  Borac Banja Luka | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 22 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 23 |  FK Jablonec | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 24 |  Aarhus | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 25 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 26 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 3 | -2 | 2 |
| 27 |  Kairat Almaty | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 28 |  CSKA Sofia | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Pafos | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 31 |  Getafe | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 32 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 33 |  KuPS | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 34 |  FC Midtjylland | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 3 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa Conference League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
On our numbers Monaco have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and SC Freiburg 36%.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
When is Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Monaco vs SC Freiburg (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Louis II.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.