Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.44Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.40 – our chance 56% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +92%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✗56% · @3.40
Double chanceUnion St. Gilloise or draw ✓79% · @1.44
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–2 ✗7% · fair 14.05
Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa League sees Plzen take on Union St. Gilloise on Thursday 17 September, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Doosan Arena. Plzen are 30th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Union St. Gilloise sit 4th on 10 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Plzen's last 5: LDWDW Most recently they lost to Sigma Olomouc 2–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Union St. Gilloise's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Lommel United 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.7 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Union St. Gilloise arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 2.2 for Plzen and 2.3 for Union St. Gilloise. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 83% and both teams to score at 66%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Plzen 21%, draw 56%, Union St. Gilloise 23%.
Safer route: Union St. Gilloise or draw (79%) at 1.44.
Both teams to score: yes (66%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Draw at 3.40 – 56% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Union St. Gilloise or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Plzen 2–2 Union St. Gilloise. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Plzen21%fair 4.75 · @2.62
Draw56%fair 1.78 · @3.40
Union St. Gilloise23%fair 4.42 · @2.45
4.50Expected goals
2.23Plzen xG
2.27Union St. Gilloise xG
66%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–27%
1–26%
2–16%
1–16%
2–35%
3–25%
From our goals model: Plzen 2.2 – 2.3 Union St. Gilloise expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
56%
1.78
3.40 ▲
Double chance
Union St. Gilloise or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.62 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Union St. Gilloise ahead at half-time✓
35%
2.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union St. Gilloise / FT Union St. Gilloise✓
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–2✗
7%
14.05
–
Form
Plzen – last 6
LDWDWL
13 Sep
vs Sigma Olomouc
2–3
L
9 Sep
@ Hradec Králové
0–0
D
5 Sep
@ Artis
3–0
W
30 Aug
vs Slovácko
1–1
D
27 Aug
vs FK Crvena Zvezda
4–1
W
20 Aug
@ FK Crvena Zvezda
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Union St. Gilloise – last 6
WWWWDD
12 Sep
vs Lommel United
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ Charleroi
3–2
W
2 Sep
@ St. Truiden
3–0
W
30 Aug
vs Anderlecht
3–0
W
15 Aug
vs Zulte Waregem
0–0
D
11 Aug
@ BodoGlimt
2–2
D
2.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Plzen and Union St. Gilloise.
What is the prediction for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our pick is Union St. Gilloise or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
On our numbers Plzen have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 56% and Union St. Gilloise 23%.
How many goals will there be in Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our predicted score is Plzen 2–2 Union St. Gilloise, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Doosan Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
