Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Beşiktaş to win @ 1.75 – our chance 64% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBeşiktaş to win ✓64% · @1.75
Double chanceBeşiktaş or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓50% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗27% · fair 3.73
Beşiktaş vs Marseille preview and prediction
The match
Marseille travel to Besiktas Park in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 17 September (20:00 WAT) to face Beşiktaş. Beşiktaş are 8th with 7 points from 4 games (in the top half), while Marseille sit 31st on 3 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Beşiktaş's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat Erzurumspor FK 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Marseille's last 5: LLLWL Most recently they lost to Rennes 0–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Beşiktaş arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 1.2 for Beşiktaş and 0.3 for Marseille. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Beşiktaş 64%, draw 23%, Marseille 13%.
Safer route: Beşiktaş or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Beşiktaş to win at 1.75 – 64% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Beşiktaş or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Beşiktaş 1–0 Marseille. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Beşiktaş64%fair 1.56 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.80
Marseille13%fair 7.54 · @3.90
1.50Expected goals
1.20Beşiktaş xG
0.30Marseille xG
50%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–027%
0–022%
2–016%
1–18%
0–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Beşiktaş 1.2 – 0.3 Marseille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Beşiktaş to win✓
64%
1.56
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Beşiktaş or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Beşiktaş / FT Beşiktaş✗
35%
2.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
27%
3.73
–
Form
Beşiktaş – last 6
WWWLLW
11 Sep
vs Erzurumspor FK
3–0
W
5 Sep
@ Fenerbahçe
2–1
W
31 Aug
vs Çorum FK
6–2
W
27 Aug
@ Kauno Žalgiris
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Alanyaspor
0–1
L
20 Aug
vs Kauno Žalgiris
3–0
W
2.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Marseille – last 6
LLLWLW
11 Sep
@ Rennes
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Paris FC
2–3
L
30 Aug
@ Monaco
0–2
L
21 Aug
vs Strasbourg
4–0
W
14 Aug
vs Atletico Madrid
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs Athletic Club
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Beşiktaş and Marseille.
Our pick is Beşiktaş or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Beşiktaş vs Marseille?
On our numbers Beşiktaş have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marseille 13%.
How many goals will there be in Beşiktaş vs Marseille?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Beşiktaş vs Marseille?
Our predicted score is Beşiktaş 1–0 Marseille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Beşiktaş vs Marseille?
Beşiktaş vs Marseille (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Besiktas Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
