Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg prediction & analysis
Red Bull Salzburg or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.40 · Won ✓
Value bet: Draw @ 3.40 – our chance 56% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +92%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Levski Sofia 1.3 – 1.4 Red Bull Salzburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Levski Sofia and Red Bull Salzburg on our numbers – 19% for the home side, 24% for the visitors and 56% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Levski Sofia have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.7 per game. Red Bull Salzburg have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 2.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. Red Bull Salzburg come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.3 for Levski Sofia, 1.4 for Red Bull Salzburg). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 62%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%).
Our pick is Red Bull Salzburg or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.40 is better than our fair price of 1.24, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Draw at 3.40 is our value angle (56% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw ✗ | 56% | 1.77 | 3.40 ▲ |
| Double chance | Red Bull Salzburg or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.40 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 62% | 1.62 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.42 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 42% | 2.39 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Red Bull Salzburg / FT Red Bull Salzburg ✓ | 23% | 4.30 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–1 ✗ | 12% | 8.29 | – |
Form
Levski Sofia – last 6
| 13 Sep | @ Botev Vratsa | 0–0 | D |
| 9 Sep | vs CSKA Sofia | 2–4 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs CSKA 1948 | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Sep | @ Slavia Sofia | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Botev Plovdiv | 3–1 | W |
| 26 Aug | @ AEK Athens FC | 0–4 | L |
Red Bull Salzburg – last 6
| 11 Sep | @ Ried | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | @ SKN ST. Polten | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Sep | vs Rapid Vienna | 5–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | vs Austria Vienna | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Aug | vs Mjallby AIF | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | @ Mjallby AIF | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Levski Sofia and Red Bull Salzburg.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our pick is Red Bull Salzburg or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg?
On our numbers Levski Sofia have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 56% and Red Bull Salzburg 24%.
How many goals will there be in Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Levski Sofia vs Red Bull Salzburg (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at National Stadium Vasil Levski.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.