PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction & analysis
PSV Eindhoven to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.42 · bookmaker 1.46 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: PSV Eindhoven 2.5 – 1.0 Shakhtar Donetsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites at home with a 70% chance of winning, against 12% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
PSV Eindhoven have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.7 per game. Shakhtar Donetsk have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 3.5 goals (2.5 for PSV Eindhoven, 1.0 for Shakhtar Donetsk). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 2–1 (9%), 3–0 (8%).
Our pick is PSV Eindhoven to win at a 70% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.46 is better than our fair price of 1.42, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | PSV Eindhoven to win ✗ | 70% | 1.42 | 1.46 |
| Double chance | PSV Eindhoven or draw ✓ | 88% | 1.14 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.16 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.86 | 1.79 |
| Half-time result | PSV Eindhoven ahead at half-time ✗ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT PSV Eindhoven / FT PSV Eindhoven ✗ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 10.40 | – |
Form
PSV Eindhoven – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Ajax | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Utrecht | 6–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | vs Groningen | 5–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Excelsior | 2–1 | W |
| 8 Aug | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–2 | D |
| 2 Aug | vs AZ Alkmaar | 0–4 | L |
Shakhtar Donetsk – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Karpaty | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Polessya | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ FC Kharkiv | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | 2–0 | W |
| 3 Aug | vs Kudrivka | 5–1 | W |
| 26 Jul | @ Bursaspor | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between PSV Eindhoven and Shakhtar Donetsk.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | +15 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | +13 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | +7 | 8 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodo/Glimt | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 26 |  FC Porto | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | -12 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | -16 | 0 |
More UEFA Champions League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our pick is PSV Eindhoven to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.46.
Who will win PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
On our numbers PSV Eindhoven have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Shakhtar Donetsk 12%.
How many goals will there be in PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Philips Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.