Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
Value bet: Draw @ 3.56 – our chance 54% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +93%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Fenerbahçe 1.1 – 1.3 AS Roma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
AS Roma shade it despite being away from home – 28% to win, against 18% for Fenerbahçe, with the draw at 54%.
Fenerbahçe have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.3 per game. AS Roma have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.1 for Fenerbahçe, 1.3 for AS Roma). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 47%. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (12%), 1–0 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.45 is better than our fair price of 1.38, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Draw at 3.56 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Draw ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 3.56 ▲ |
| Double chance | AS Roma or draw ✓ | 82% | 1.21 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | 2.16 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.38 | 1.45 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 45% | 2.20 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma ✗ | 24% | 4.19 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–1 ✓ | 13% | 7.67 | – |
Form
Fenerbahçe – last 6
| 5 Sep | vs Beşiktaş | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ Samsunspor | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Aug | @ Lyon | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | vs Konyaspor | 4–2 | W |
| 18 Aug | vs Lyon | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | @ Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 1–2 | L |
AS Roma – last 6
| 5 Sep | vs Atalanta | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Lecce | 4–0 | W |
| 24 Aug | vs Fiorentina | 4–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | @ Borussia Dortmund | 2–2 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Brighton | 0–3 | L |
| 4 Aug | @ Newport County | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fenerbahçe and AS Roma.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | +15 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | +13 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | +7 | 8 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | +2 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atletico Madrid | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 24 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodo/Glimt | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 26 |  FC Porto | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | -12 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | -4 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | -6 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | -16 | 0 |
More UEFA Champions League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
On our numbers Fenerbahçe have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 54% and AS Roma 28%.
How many goals will there be in Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
When is Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.