Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultArsenal to win ✓67% · @1.67
Double chanceArsenal or draw ✓88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓14% · fair 7.29
Napoli vs Arsenal preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Champions League sees Napoli take on Arsenal on Wednesday 9 September, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Napoli are 27th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Arsenal sit 3rd on 10 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Napoli's last 5: LLWWD Most recently they lost to Inter 2–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Arsenal's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Chelsea 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.7 for Napoli and 2.0 for Arsenal. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 48%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Napoli 12%, draw 22%, Arsenal 67%.
Safer route: Arsenal or draw (88%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Arsenal to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.67, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Napoli 0–1 Arsenal. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Napoli12%fair 8.38 · @5.10
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.65
Arsenal67%fair 1.50 · @1.67
2.66Expected goals
0.70Napoli xG
1.96Arsenal xG
48%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–39%
0–07%
From our goals model: Napoli 0.7 – 2.0 Arsenal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win✓
67%
1.50
1.67 ▲
Double chance
Arsenal or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.15
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
1.98
1.87
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.33
Half-time result
Arsenal ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal✗
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
14%
7.29
–
Form
Napoli – last 6
LLWWDW
5 Sep
@ Inter
2–3
L
30 Aug
vs Como
1–2
L
22 Aug
@ Genoa
2–0
W
12 Aug
vs Aris Thessalonikis
6–2
W
8 Aug
vs Celta Vigo
1–1
D
5 Aug
vs Osasuna
2–1
W
2.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Arsenal – last 6
WWWWDL
6 Sep
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
31 Aug
@ Aston Villa
1–0
W
21 Aug
vs Coventry
3–0
W
16 Aug
vs Manchester City
3–0
W
12 Aug
vs Como
1–1
D
9 Aug
vs Borussia Dortmund
2–3
L
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Napoli and Arsenal.
Our pick is Arsenal to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Napoli vs Arsenal?
On our numbers Napoli have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Arsenal 67%.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs Arsenal?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs Arsenal?
Our predicted score is Napoli 0–1 Arsenal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Napoli vs Arsenal?
Napoli vs Arsenal (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
