Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Liverpool or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultLiverpool to win ✓62% · @1.71
Double chanceLiverpool or draw ✓84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.66
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Champions League sees Liverpool take on Atletico Madrid on Wednesday 9 September, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Anfield. Liverpool are 8th with 9 points from 4 games (in the top half), while Atletico Madrid sit 23rd on 4 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Liverpool's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat Ipswich 2–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Atletico Madrid's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Athletic Club 0–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Atletico Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.1 for Liverpool and 1.0 for Atletico Madrid. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Liverpool 62%, draw 23%, Atletico Madrid 16%.
Safer route: Liverpool or draw (84%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Liverpool or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Liverpool 2–0 Atletico Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Liverpool62%fair 1.62 · @1.71
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.95
Atletico Madrid16%fair 6.39 · @4.33
3.02Expected goals
2.06Liverpool xG
0.96Atletico Madrid xG
61%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Liverpool 2.1 – 1.0 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool to win✓
62%
1.62
1.71 ▲
Double chance
Liverpool or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
Half-time result
Liverpool ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool / FT Liverpool✗
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.66
–
Form
Liverpool – last 6
WDDDLL
4 Sep
@ Ipswich
2–0
W
29 Aug
vs Nottingham Forest
2–2
D
23 Aug
@ Newcastle
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Como
0–0
D
9 Aug
vs Monaco
2–3
L
2 Aug
vs Leeds
2–4
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Madrid – last 6
LWDWWL
5 Sep
@ Athletic Club
0–3
L
29 Aug
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
23 Aug
vs Villarreal
2–2
D
19 Aug
vs Malaga
2–0
W
14 Aug
@ Marseille
2–1
W
9 Aug
@ Manchester City
1–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool and Atletico Madrid.
What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
Our pick is Liverpool or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
On our numbers Liverpool have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Atletico Madrid 16%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
Our predicted score is Liverpool 2–0 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid?
Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 9 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Anfield.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
