Good pick · fair odds 1.63 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.75Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✓61% · @1.75
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓84% · @1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.65
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗17% · fair 6.02
Danubio vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Danubio take on Penarol on Saturday 5 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT). Danubio are 14th with 10 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Danubio's last 5: LLWDD Most recently they lost to Atletico Torque 0–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Penarol's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Atenas 2–2 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 8 March 2026, finished Penarol 1–1 Danubio.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 0.7 for Danubio and 1.6 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 49%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Danubio 16%, draw 22%, Penarol 61%.
Safer route: Penarol or draw (84%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penarol to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.75, above our fair price of 1.63, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Danubio 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Danubio16%fair 6.16 · @4.60
Draw22%fair 4.48 · @3.30
Penarol61%fair 1.63 · @1.75
2.27Expected goals
0.66Danubio xG
1.61Penarol xG
49%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–117%
0–213%
1–111%
0–010%
1–29%
0–37%
From our goals model: Danubio 0.7 – 1.6 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Penarol to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Danubio vs Penarol?
On our numbers Danubio have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Penarol 61%.
How many goals will there be in Danubio vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Danubio vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Danubio 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Danubio vs Penarol?
Danubio vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
