Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Istiqlol to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIstiqlol to win ✗60% · @1.90
Double chanceIstiqlol or draw ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.39
Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol preview and prediction
The match
The AFC Challenge League sees Al Nejmeh take on Istiqlol on Saturday 17 October, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Hisor Central Stadium.
Form guide
Al Nejmeh's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Tadamon Sour 3–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Istiqlol's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Khujand 0–1 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.8 for Al Nejmeh and 1.8 for Istiqlol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 46%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al Nejmeh 16%, draw 24%, Istiqlol 60%.
Safer route: Istiqlol or draw (84%) at 1.22.
Value angle: Istiqlol to win at 1.90 – 60% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Istiqlol or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Al Nejmeh 0–1 Istiqlol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al Nejmeh16%fair 6.24 · @3.50
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.40
Istiqlol60%fair 1.68 · @1.90
2.57Expected goals
0.80Al Nejmeh xG
1.77Istiqlol xG
46%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Al Nejmeh 0.8 – 1.8 Istiqlol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Istiqlol to win✗
60%
1.68
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Istiqlol or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Istiqlol ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Istiqlol / FT Istiqlol✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.39
–
Form
Al Nejmeh – last 6
DWLWWD
12 Oct
vs Tadamon Sour
3–3
D
8 Oct
@ Al Akhaa Al Ahli
2–0
W
2 Aug
vs Al Ansar
1–2
L
28 Jul
vs Al Ahed
2–1
W
24 Jul
vs Jwaaya FC
2–1
W
20 Jul
@ Al Ansar
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Istiqlol – last 6
LWWWLW
15 Sep
@ Khujand
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Khosilot Farkhor
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Parvoz
4–0
W
15 Aug
@ Ravshan
1–0
W
2 Aug
@ Regar-TadAZ
0–1
L
28 Jun
@ Sardor Tursunzoda
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al Nejmeh and Istiqlol.
Our pick is Istiqlol or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol?
On our numbers Al Nejmeh have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Istiqlol 60%.
How many goals will there be in Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol?
Our predicted score is Al Nejmeh 0–1 Istiqlol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol?
Al Nejmeh vs Istiqlol (AFC Challenge League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Hisor Central Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Ahal2
Paro2
Goa1
Regar-TadAZ2