Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.36Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 4.00 – our chance 53% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +113%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDraw ✓53% · @4.00
Double chanceAhal or draw ✓80% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.94
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗12% · fair 8.11
Ahal vs Paro preview and prediction
The match
Paro travel to Changlimithang Stadium in the AFC Challenge League on Saturday 17 October (13:00 WAT) to face Ahal.
Form guide
Ahal's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Altyn Asyr 0–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Paro's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Thimphu City 2–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 4.2 per game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Paro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.4 for Ahal and 1.3 for Paro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 57%, both teams to score at 48%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ahal 27%, draw 53%, Paro 20%.
Safer route: Ahal or draw (80%) at 1.36.
Value angle: Draw at 4.00 – 53% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ahal or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.36, above our fair price of 1.25, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ahal 1–1 Paro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ahal27%fair 3.72 · @2.05
Draw53%fair 1.87 · @4.00
Paro20%fair 5.06 · @2.70
2.66Expected goals
1.41Ahal xG
1.25Paro xG
48%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Ahal 1.4 – 1.3 Paro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
53%
1.87
4.00 ▲
Double chance
Ahal or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.36 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ahal / FT Ahal✗
24%
4.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–1✗
12%
8.11
–
Form
Ahal – last 6
LWWLWL
7 Oct
vs Altyn Asyr
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Aşgabat
4–3
W
12 Sep
vs Nebitci
3–0
W
5 Sep
@ Şagadam
1–2
L
22 Aug
vs Merw
4–0
W
16 Aug
@ Arkadag
1–2
L
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Paro – last 6
WWWWWW
8 Oct
@ Thimphu City
2–0
W
3 Oct
vs Bhutan U19
6–0
W
12 Sep
@ Transport United
4–2
W
8 Sep
@ Ugyen Academy
10–0
W
22 Aug
vs RTC
1–0
W
11 Aug
vs Abu Muslim
2–0
W
4.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ahal and Paro.
Our pick is Ahal or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Ahal vs Paro?
On our numbers Ahal have a 27% chance of winning, the draw 53% and Paro 20%.
How many goals will there be in Ahal vs Paro?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ahal vs Paro?
Our predicted score is Ahal 1–1 Paro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Ahal vs Paro?
Ahal vs Paro (AFC Challenge League) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Changlimithang Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Goa1
Regar-TadAZ2
Al Nejmeh1
Istiqlol0