Value bet: Shams Azar Qazvin to win @ 3.70 – our chance 31% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNassaji Mazandaran to win ✗45% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.34
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · fair 1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.97
Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin preview and prediction
The match
Nassaji Mazandaran host Shams Azar Qazvin in the Persian Gulf Pro League on Friday 28 August, with kick-off at 16:45 (WAT) at Vatani Stadium. Nassaji Mazandaran are 12th with 12 points from 12 games (in the bottom half), while Shams Azar Qazvin sit 17th on 7 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Nassaji Mazandaran's last 5: DLLLW Most recently they drew with Esteghlal Khuzestan 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Shams Azar Qazvin's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Aluminium Arak 2–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Nassaji Mazandaran and 0.8 for Shams Azar Qazvin. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Shams Azar Qazvin to win at 3.70 – 31% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 76% chance at odds of 1.34, above our fair price of 1.31, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Nassaji Mazandaran 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nassaji Mazandaran45%fair 2.22 · @2.10
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @2.92
Shams Azar Qazvin31%fair 3.21 · @3.70
1.83Expected goals
1.04Nassaji Mazandaran xG
0.79Shams Azar Qazvin xG
38%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–016%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Nassaji Mazandaran 1.0 – 0.8 Shams Azar Qazvin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nassaji Mazandaran to win✗
45%
2.22
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.34
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.97
–
Form
Nassaji Mazandaran – last 6
DLLLWL
23 Aug
@ Esteghlal Khuzestan
1–1
D
18 Aug
vs Esteghlal FC
0–1
L
14 Aug
@ Gol Gohar
0–1
L
17 Jul
vs Ario Eslamshahr
1–2
L
11 Jul
@ Fard Alborz
1–0
W
3 Jul
vs Havadar
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Shams Azar Qazvin – last 6
DDLLLD
23 Aug
vs Aluminium Arak
2–2
D
19 Aug
@ Foolad FC
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Persepolis FC
0–2
L
27 Feb
vs Foolad FC
0–2
L
20 Feb
@ Fajr Sepasi
0–1
L
13 Feb
vs Aluminium Arak
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nassaji Mazandaran and Shams Azar Qazvin.
What is the prediction for Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.34.
Who will win Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
On our numbers Nassaji Mazandaran have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Shams Azar Qazvin 31%.
How many goals will there be in Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Our predicted score is Nassaji Mazandaran 1–0 Shams Azar Qazvin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Nassaji Mazandaran vs Shams Azar Qazvin (Persian Gulf Pro League) kicks off on Friday 28 August 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Vatani Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
