Very strong pick · fair odds 1.21 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Şahdağ to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultŞahdağ to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceŞahdağ or draw ✗83% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 9.38
Xankəndi FK vs Şahdağ preview and prediction
The match
The Birinci Dasta sees Xankəndi FK take on Şahdağ on Thursday 15 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT). Xankəndi FK are 7th with 6 points from 7 games (in the bottom half), while Şahdağ sit 2nd on 15 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Xankəndi FK's last 4: DLLD Most recently they drew with Şimal 1–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Şahdağ's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Zaqatala 6–0 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Şahdağ arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.0 for Xankəndi FK and 1.9 for Şahdağ. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 54%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Xankəndi FK 17%, draw 26%, Şahdağ 57%.
Safer route: Şahdağ or draw (83%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Şahdağ to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Şahdağ or draw – a 83% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Xankəndi FK 0–1 Şahdağ. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Xankəndi FK17%fair 5.81 · @3.50
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @3.30
Şahdağ57%fair 1.76 · @1.91
2.88Expected goals
0.98Xankəndi FK xG
1.90Şahdağ xG
54%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–111%
1–110%
0–210%
1–210%
0–36%
1–36%
From our goals model: Xankəndi FK 1.0 – 1.9 Şahdağ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Şahdağ to win✗
57%
1.76
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Şahdağ or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.84
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
78%
1.28
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Şahdağ ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şahdağ / FT Şahdağ✗
37%
2.70
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
9.38
–
Form
Xankəndi FK – last 4
DLLD
9 Oct
@ Şimal
1–1
D
18 Sep
vs MOIK
0–2
L
10 Sep
@ Cəbrayıl
1–2
L
3 Sep
vs Səbail
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Şahdağ – last 6
WWWWDW
7 Oct
vs Zaqatala
6–0
W
17 Sep
@ Şimal
4–1
W
9 Sep
vs Karvan
2–0
W
3 Sep
@ MOIK
1–0
W
22 May
vs Baku Sportinq
1–1
D
5 May
vs Mingəçevir
2–0
W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xankəndi FK and Şahdağ.
Our pick is Şahdağ or draw with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Xankəndi FK vs Şahdağ?
On our numbers Xankəndi FK have a 17% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Şahdağ 57%.
How many goals will there be in Xankəndi FK vs Şahdağ?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xankəndi FK vs Şahdağ?
Our predicted score is Xankəndi FK 0–1 Şahdağ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Xankəndi FK vs Şahdağ?
Xankəndi FK vs Şahdağ (Birinci Dasta) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
