Al-Nassr host Neftchi in the AFC Champions League on Monday 12 October, with kick-off at 19:15 (WAT) at Al-Awwal Park. Al-Nassr are 7th with 6 points from 3 games (in the top half), while Neftchi sit 9th on 4 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Al-Nassr's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Al Diriyah 3–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Neftchi's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Xorazm 2–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 2.0 for Al-Nassr and 0.5 for Neftchi. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al-Nassr 73%, draw 18%, Neftchi 9%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 1.75.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Al-Nassr to win – a 73% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Al-Nassr 1–0 Neftchi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al-Nassr73%fair 1.36 · @1.20
Draw18%fair 5.61 · @6.50
Neftchi9%fair 11.38 · @11.00
2.50Expected goals
2.00Al-Nassr xG
0.50Neftchi xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–016%
3–011%
1–18%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Al-Nassr 2.0 – 0.5 Neftchi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al-Nassr to win✓
73%
1.36
1.20
Double chance
Al-Nassr or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.97
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Half-time result
Al-Nassr ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al-Nassr / FT Al-Nassr✓
48%
2.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.10
–
Form
Al-Nassr – last 6
WLDWLW
9 Oct
vs Al Diriyah
3–0
W
15 Sep
@ Al Ain
0–4
L
12 Sep
@ Al Khaleej Saihat
1–1
D
9 Sep
vs Abha
2–1
W
5 Sep
@ Al-Ittihad FC
1–2
L
28 Aug
vs Al Taawon
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Neftchi – last 6
DWWWLW
7 Oct
vs Xorazm
2–2
D
20 Sep
@ Lokomotiv
1–0
W
14 Sep
vs Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs Surkhon
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Nasaf
2–6
L
29 Aug
vs Pakhtakor
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al-Nassr and Neftchi.
Our pick is Al-Nassr to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Al-Nassr vs Neftchi?
On our numbers Al-Nassr have a 73% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Neftchi 9%.
How many goals will there be in Al-Nassr vs Neftchi?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al-Nassr vs Neftchi?
Our predicted score is Al-Nassr 1–0 Neftchi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Al-Nassr vs Neftchi?
Al-Nassr vs Neftchi (AFC Champions League) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Al-Awwal Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
