Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.53Odds
2
Value bet: Esteghlal FC to win @ 2.30 – our chance 50% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultEsteghlal FC to win ✓50% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓9% · fair 10.58
Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC preview and prediction
The match
The AFC Champions League sees Al-Gharafa take on Esteghlal FC on Monday 12 October, kicking off at 19:15 (WAT) at Thani bin Jassim Stadium. Al-Gharafa are 16th with 0 points from 4 games (in the bottom three), while Esteghlal FC sit 3rd on 9 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Al-Gharafa's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Al Wakrah 2–3 away. They average 1.5 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Esteghlal FC's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Tractor Sazi 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Esteghlal FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.3 for Al-Gharafa and 1.7 for Esteghlal FC. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Al-Gharafa 30%, draw 21%, Esteghlal FC 50%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Esteghlal FC to win at 2.30 – 50% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 62% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Al-Gharafa 1–1 Esteghlal FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Al-Gharafa30%fair 3.36 · @2.62
Draw21%fair 4.85 · @3.40
Esteghlal FC50%fair 2.02 · @2.30
3.00Expected goals
1.27Al-Gharafa xG
1.73Esteghlal FC xG
62%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
0–19%
0–27%
2–17%
1–06%
From our goals model: Al-Gharafa 1.3 – 1.7 Esteghlal FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Esteghlal FC to win✓
50%
2.02
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.26
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.54
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Esteghlal FC / FT Esteghlal FC✓
29%
3.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
9%
10.58
–
Form
Al-Gharafa – last 6
LWLDLL
8 Oct
@ Al Wakrah
2–3
L
1 Oct
vs Al Mesaimeer
4–2
W
15 Sep
@ Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1–2
L
11 Sep
vs Lusail City
0–0
D
5 Sep
@ Al Sadd
1–4
L
1 Sep
@ Al Sadd
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Esteghlal FC – last 6
DWWDDD
8 Oct
@ Tractor Sazi
1–1
D
14 Sep
vs Al Sadd
3–0
W
10 Sep
vs Paykan
1–0
W
6 Sep
@ Aluminium Arak
0–0
D
2 Sep
vs Persepolis FC
1–1
D
28 Aug
@ Foolad FC
0–0
D
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Al-Gharafa and Esteghlal FC.
What is the prediction for Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
On our numbers Al-Gharafa have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Esteghlal FC 50%.
How many goals will there be in Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
Our predicted score is Al-Gharafa 1–1 Esteghlal FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC?
Al-Gharafa vs Esteghlal FC (AFC Champions League) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 19:15 (West Africa Time) at Thani bin Jassim Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
