Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDanubio to win ✗40% · @2.36
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.04
Progreso vs Danubio preview and prediction
The match
Danubio travel to Parque Abraham Paladino in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 29 August (15:00 WAT) to face Progreso. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Danubio sit 14th on 10 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Progreso's last 5: LLLLL Most recently they lost to CA River Plate 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Danubio's last 5: WDDLD Most recently they beat Atenas 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Danubio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 May 2026, finished Danubio 1–2 Progreso.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Progreso and 1.2 for Danubio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 55%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Progreso 36%, draw 24%, Danubio 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 55% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Progreso 1–1 Danubio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso36%fair 2.80 · @2.92
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @3.10
Danubio40%fair 2.51 · @2.36
2.23Expected goals
1.07Progreso xG
1.15Danubio xG
55%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–012%
0–011%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.1 – 1.2 Danubio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Progreso vs Danubio?
On our numbers Progreso have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Danubio 40%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Danubio?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Danubio?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Danubio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Danubio?
Progreso vs Danubio (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
