Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Boston River to win @ 1.88 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBoston River to win ✗61% · @1.88
Double chanceBoston River or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.92
Boston River vs Cerro preview and prediction
The match
Boston River host Cerro in the Primera División Apertura on Saturday 29 August, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Parque Artigas. Boston River are 11th with 15 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Cerro sit 9th on 18 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Boston River's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Albion FC 3–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Cerro's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Liverpool Montevideo 0–4 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Cerro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 28 February 2026, finished Cerro 1–1 Boston River.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.6 for Boston River and 0.6 for Cerro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Boston River 61%, draw 25%, Cerro 14%.
Safer route: Boston River or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Boston River to win at 1.88 – 61% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Boston River or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Boston River 1–0 Cerro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Boston River61%fair 1.63 · @1.88
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.15
Cerro14%fair 7.11 · @4.10
2.27Expected goals
1.63Boston River xG
0.64Cerro xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
2–014%
1–111%
0–010%
2–19%
3–07%
From our goals model: Boston River 1.6 – 0.6 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Boston River or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Boston River vs Cerro?
On our numbers Boston River have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Cerro 14%.
How many goals will there be in Boston River vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Boston River vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Boston River 1–0 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Boston River vs Cerro?
Boston River vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 29 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Artigas.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
