Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultMexico to win ✗42% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.38
USA vs Mexico preview and prediction
The match
The Friendlies sees USA take on Mexico on Sunday 4 October, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at AT&T Stadium.
Form guide
USA's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Chile 4–2 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 1 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game.
Mexico's last 5: DDLWW Most recently they drew with Peru 1–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for USA and 1.6 for Mexico. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: USA 35%, draw 23%, Mexico 42%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.62.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 60% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: USA 1–1 Mexico. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
USA35%fair 2.84 · @2.70
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.25
Mexico42%fair 2.40 · @2.30
3.06Expected goals
1.45USA xG
1.61Mexico xG
60%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: USA 1.5 – 1.6 Mexico expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mexico to win✗
42%
2.40
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mexico / FT Mexico✗
25%
4.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.38
–
Form
USA – last 6
WWLWLW
30 Sep
vs Chile
4–2
W
26 Sep
vs Peru
4–1
W
7 Jul
vs Belgium
1–4
L
2 Jul
vs Bosnia & Herzegovina
2–0
W
26 Jun
@ Türkiye
2–3
L
19 Jun
vs Australia
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Mexico – last 6
DDLWWW
30 Sep
vs Peru
1–1
D
27 Sep
vs Colombia
1–1
D
6 Jul
vs England
2–3
L
1 Jul
vs Ecuador
2–0
W
25 Jun
@ Czechia
3–0
W
19 Jun
vs South Korea
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between USA and Mexico.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win USA vs Mexico?
On our numbers USA have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Mexico 42%.
How many goals will there be in USA vs Mexico?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for USA vs Mexico?
Our predicted score is USA 1–1 Mexico, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is USA vs Mexico?
USA vs Mexico (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at AT&T Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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