Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewroz to win ✗60% · @1.62
Double chanceNewroz or draw ✓80% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.02
Newroz vs Diyala preview and prediction
The match
Newroz host Diyala in the Iraqi League on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT). Newroz are 2nd with 26 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Diyala sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Newroz's last 5: WWDWW Most recently they beat Al Minaa Basra 2–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.0 conceded. 6 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Diyala's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Naft Maysan 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Newroz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.7 for Newroz and 0.8 for Diyala. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 46%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newroz 60%, draw 20%, Diyala 20%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Newroz to win – a 60% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Newroz 1–0 Diyala. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newroz60%fair 1.66 · @1.62
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @3.40
Diyala20%fair 5.04 · @5.00
2.46Expected goals
1.66Newroz xG
0.80Diyala xG
46%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–012%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
From our goals model: Newroz 1.7 – 0.8 Diyala expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newroz to win✗
60%
1.66
1.62
Double chance
Newroz or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newroz / FT Newroz✗
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.02
–
Form
Newroz – last 6
WWDWWW
16 Oct
vs Al Minaa Basra
2–0
W
9 Oct
@ Zakho
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Ghaz Al Shamal
0–0
D
14 Sep
@ Al-Jolan SC
2–0
W
9 Sep
vs Mosul
3–0
W
4 Sep
@ Naft Maysan
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Diyala – last 6
WLDWLL
16 Oct
vs Naft Maysan
2–0
W
9 Oct
@ Naft
0–2
L
19 Sep
@ Al Quwa Al Jawiya
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Gharraf
3–1
W
8 Sep
@ Erbil
0–2
L
3 Sep
vs Al-Karma
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newroz and Diyala.
Our pick is Newroz to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Newroz vs Diyala?
On our numbers Newroz have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Diyala 20%.
How many goals will there be in Newroz vs Diyala?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newroz vs Diyala?
Our predicted score is Newroz 1–0 Diyala, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Newroz vs Diyala?
Newroz vs Diyala (Iraqi League) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
