Serie D Girone G · Italy · Stadio Marcello TorrePaganese vs Gelbison prediction & analysis
Paganese to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.66 · bookmaker 1.75 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Paganese 1.9 – 0.9 Gelbison expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Paganese are clear favourites at home with a 60% chance of winning, against 17% for Gelbison.
Paganese have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.7 per game. Gelbison have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.7 conceded. Paganese come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.9 goals (1.9 for Paganese, 0.9 for Gelbison). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (11%), 2–0 (11%), 1–1 (10%).
Our pick is Paganese to win at a 60% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.75 is better than our fair price of 1.66, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Paganese to win ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Paganese or draw ✗ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.98 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.95 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 68% | 1.48 | – |
| Half-time result | Paganese ahead at half-time ✓ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Paganese / FT Paganese ✗ | 39% | 2.60 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.15 | – |
Form
Paganese – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Trastevere | 6–1 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Afragolese | 0–0 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Latte Dolce | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Unipomezia | 2–1 | W |
| 17 May | @ Martina Franca | 1–0 | W |
| 3 May | @ Città di Fasano | 0–6 | L |
Gelbison – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Sarnese | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Budoni | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Trastevere | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Afragolese | 0–0 | D |
| 10 May | @ Nissa | 0–4 | L |
| 3 May | vs Gela | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Paganese and Gelbison.
Serie D Girone G table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sarnese | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 2 |  Trastevere | 10 | -1 | 18 |
| 3 |  Albalonga | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 4 |  Monastir | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Certosa V. Campagnano | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Unipomezia | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 |  Anzio | 10 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Afragolese | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Aranova | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Paganese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ossese | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Città di Anagni | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Budoni | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Venafro | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sarrabus Ogliastra | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 |  Gelbison | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 |  Latte Dolce | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Atletico Lodigiani | 11 | -11 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone G predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Paganese vs Gelbison?
Our pick is Paganese to win with a 60% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Paganese vs Gelbison?
On our numbers Paganese have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Gelbison 17%.
How many goals will there be in Paganese vs Gelbison?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Paganese vs Gelbison?
Paganese vs Gelbison (Serie D Girone G) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Marcello Torre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.