Serie D Girone G · ItalyAtletico Lodigiani vs Trastevere prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.74 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
Value bet: Trastevere to win @ 2.45 – our chance 45% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Atletico Lodigiani 1.5 – 1.7 Trastevere expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Trastevere shade it despite being away from home – 45% to win, against 34% for Atletico Lodigiani.
Atletico Lodigiani have taken 4 points from their last 6 matches (1W 1D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.0 per game. Trastevere have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.7 conceded. Trastevere come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.2 goals (1.5 for Atletico Lodigiani, 1.7 for Trastevere). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (9%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Atletico Lodigiani have won 0, Trastevere have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 57% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is better than our fair price of 1.74, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Trastevere to win at 2.45 is our value angle (45% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Trastevere to win ✓ | 45% | 2.23 | 2.45 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 55% | 1.83 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.80 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 60% | 1.66 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 38% | 2.63 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Trastevere / FT Trastevere ✗ | 26% | 3.78 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 9% | 11.17 | – |
Form
Atletico Lodigiani – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Certosa V. Campagnano | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Latte Dolce | 2–2 | D |
| 12 Sep | @ Monastir | 1–5 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Albalonga | 2–3 | L |
| 3 May | @ Cassino | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Apr | @ Budoni | 0–1 | L |
Trastevere – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Paganese | 1–6 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Ossese | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Gelbison | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Venafro | 1–0 | W |
| 10 May | vs Albalonga | 2–0 | W |
| 3 May | @ Anzio | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Atletico Lodigiani v Trastevere | 1–2 |
Serie D Girone G table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sarnese | 11 | +11 | 26 |
| 2 |  Trastevere | 10 | -1 | 18 |
| 3 |  Albalonga | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 4 |  Monastir | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 5 |  Certosa V. Campagnano | 11 | +3 | 17 |
| 6 |  Unipomezia | 11 | +4 | 16 |
| 7 |  Anzio | 10 | +4 | 16 |
| 8 |  Afragolese | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 9 |  Aranova | 11 | -1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Paganese | 11 | +4 | 14 |
| 11 |  Ossese | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 |  Città di Anagni | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Budoni | 11 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 |  Venafro | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 15 |  Sarrabus Ogliastra | 11 | -1 | 12 |
| 16 |  Gelbison | 11 | -8 | 11 |
| 17 |  Latte Dolce | 11 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 |  Atletico Lodigiani | 11 | -11 | 6 |
More Serie D Girone G predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Atletico Lodigiani vs Trastevere?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Atletico Lodigiani vs Trastevere?
On our numbers Atletico Lodigiani have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Trastevere 45%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Lodigiani vs Trastevere?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Atletico Lodigiani vs Trastevere?
Atletico Lodigiani vs Trastevere (Serie D Girone G) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.