Value bet: Recanatese to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRecanatese to win ✗56% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · fair 1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.97
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.74
Recanatese vs Sporting Trestina preview and prediction
The match
Recanatese host Sporting Trestina in the Serie D Girone F on Sunday 1 November, with kick-off at 14:30 (WAT) at Nicola Tubaldi. Recanatese are 15th with 9 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Sporting Trestina sit 14th on 11 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Recanatese's last 5: WLLLL Most recently they beat Angelana 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.8 conceded.
Sporting Trestina's last 5: WLLLW Most recently they beat Santegidiese 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Sporting Trestina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.6 for Recanatese and 0.9 for Sporting Trestina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Recanatese to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.24. Predicted score: Recanatese 1–0 Sporting Trestina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Recanatese56%fair 1.80 · @1.95
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @3.30
Sporting Trestina23%fair 4.29 · @3.60
2.52Expected goals
1.61Recanatese xG
0.91Sporting Trestina xG
51%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Recanatese 1.6 – 0.9 Sporting Trestina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Recanatese to win✗
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.97
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.68
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.24
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Recanatese / FT Recanatese✗
33%
3.06
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.74
–
Form
Recanatese – last 6
WLLLLL
25 Oct
@ Angelana
1–0
W
21 Oct
@ Ternana
1–5
L
18 Oct
vs L'Aquila
2–3
L
10 Oct
@ Notaresco
1–2
L
4 Oct
vs Maceratese
2–3
L
27 Sep
@ Lanciano FC
1–4
L
1.3Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Sporting Trestina – last 6
WLLLWL
25 Oct
vs Santegidiese
2–1
W
18 Oct
@ Pietralunga
0–2
L
11 Oct
vs Teramo
0–2
L
4 Oct
@ Ancona
0–2
L
27 Sep
vs Termoli Calcio
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ Atletico Ascoli
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Recanatese and Sporting Trestina.
What is the prediction for Recanatese vs Sporting Trestina?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.24.
Who will win Recanatese vs Sporting Trestina?
On our numbers Recanatese have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sporting Trestina 23%.
How many goals will there be in Recanatese vs Sporting Trestina?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Recanatese vs Sporting Trestina?
Our predicted score is Recanatese 1–0 Sporting Trestina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Recanatese vs Sporting Trestina?
Recanatese vs Sporting Trestina (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Nicola Tubaldi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
