Value bet: Ancona to win @ 1.69 – our chance 64% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAncona to win ✓64% · @1.69
Double chanceAncona or draw ✓85% · fair 1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.84
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓13% · fair 7.84
Ancona vs Atletico Ascoli preview and prediction
The match
Atletico Ascoli travel to Stadio del Conero in the Serie D Girone F on Sunday 1 November (14:30 WAT) to face Ancona. Ancona are 3rd with 21 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Atletico Ascoli sit 10th on 15 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Ancona's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Robur Siena 2–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico Ascoli's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Termoli Calcio 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.9 for Ancona and 0.8 for Atletico Ascoli. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Ancona to win at 1.69 – 64% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ancona 2–0 Atletico Ascoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ancona64%fair 1.56 · @1.69
Draw21%fair 4.88 · @3.50
Atletico Ascoli15%fair 6.48 · @4.73
2.71Expected goals
1.91Ancona xG
0.80Atletico Ascoli xG
52%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Ancona 1.9 – 0.8 Atletico Ascoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ancona to win✓
64%
1.56
1.69 ▲
Double chance
Ancona or draw✓
85%
1.18
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.84
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
1.74
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.37
Half-time result
Ancona ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ancona / FT Ancona✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
13%
7.84
–
Form
Ancona – last 6
DWLWDW
28 Oct
@ Robur Siena
2–2
D
25 Oct
@ Vigor Senigallia
5–0
W
18 Oct
vs Fossombrone
2–3
L
11 Oct
@ Real Giulianova
2–0
W
7 Oct
vs Fossombrone
1–1
D
4 Oct
vs Sporting Trestina
2–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico Ascoli – last 6
DWWLLW
25 Oct
@ Termoli Calcio
0–0
D
18 Oct
vs Lanciano FC
5–1
W
11 Oct
@ Vigor Senigallia
2–1
W
4 Oct
vs Fossombrone
0–1
L
27 Sep
@ Real Giulianova
2–4
L
20 Sep
vs Sporting Trestina
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ancona and Atletico Ascoli.
What is the prediction for Ancona vs Atletico Ascoli?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ancona vs Atletico Ascoli?
On our numbers Ancona have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico Ascoli 15%.
How many goals will there be in Ancona vs Atletico Ascoli?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ancona vs Atletico Ascoli?
Our predicted score is Ancona 2–0 Atletico Ascoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Ancona vs Atletico Ascoli?
Ancona vs Atletico Ascoli (Serie D Girone F) kicks off on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio del Conero.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
