Serie D Girone E · ItalyMontevarchi Calcio vs Progresso prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.23 · Won ✓
Value bet: Montevarchi Calcio to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Montevarchi Calcio 2.0 – 1.1 Progresso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Montevarchi Calcio hold the edge on home soil with a 57% chance of winning, against 20% for Progresso.
Montevarchi Calcio have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Progresso have 7 points from their last 6 (2W 1D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.1 goals (2.0 for Montevarchi Calcio, 1.1 for Progresso). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 2–1 (10%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.23 is close to our fair price of 1.29. For a bigger price, Montevarchi Calcio to win at 1.95 is our value angle (57% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Montevarchi Calcio to win ✓ | 57% | 1.74 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Montevarchi Calcio or draw ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 60% | 1.65 | 1.77 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.23 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.80 | 1.78 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.53 | 1.35 |
| Half-time result | Montevarchi Calcio ahead at half-time ✓ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Montevarchi Calcio / FT Montevarchi Calcio ✓ | 37% | 2.74 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.08 | – |
Form
Montevarchi Calcio – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Robur Siena | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Seravezza | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sep | vs Tau Altopascio | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Lucchese | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Aug | vs Figline | 0–0 | D |
| 3 May | @ Prato | 0–1 | L |
Progresso – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Seravezza | 0–3 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Lucchese | 0–5 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Scandicci | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Tau Altopascio | 1–2 | L |
| 3 May | vs Sasso Marconi Zola | 4–1 | W |
| 26 Apr | @ Sant'Angelo | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Montevarchi Calcio and Progresso.
Serie D Girone E table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?
On our numbers Montevarchi Calcio have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Progresso 20%.
How many goals will there be in Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
When is Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso?
Montevarchi Calcio vs Progresso (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.