Serie D Girone E · ItalyFlaminia vs San Donato Tavarnelle prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Value bet: San Donato Tavarnelle to win @ 2.60 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Flaminia 1.3 – 1.5 San Donato Tavarnelle expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
San Donato Tavarnelle shade it despite being away from home – 44% to win, against 34% for Flaminia.
Flaminia have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.7 per game. San Donato Tavarnelle have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (1.3 for Flaminia, 1.5 for San Donato Tavarnelle). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 54%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 0–1 (9%), 1–2 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 73% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.37. For a bigger price, San Donato Tavarnelle to win at 2.60 is our value angle (44% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | San Donato Tavarnelle to win ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | 2.60 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | – |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 1.84 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 50% | 1.99 | 1.74 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.27 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 41% | 2.41 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT San Donato Tavarnelle / FT San Donato Tavarnelle ✗ | 25% | 4.03 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.76 | – |
Form
Flaminia – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Terranuova Traiana | 1–5 | L |
| 16 Sep | vs Sasso Marconi Zola | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Grassina | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Jul | @ Lazio | 0–6 | L |
| 10 May | @ Monastir | 3–3 | D |
San Donato Tavarnelle – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Gavorrano | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Terranuova Traiana | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Sasso Marconi Zola | 3–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Seravezza | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | @ Robur Siena | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Jul | @ Grosseto | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Flaminia and San Donato Tavarnelle.
Serie D Girone E table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Flaminia vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Flaminia vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
On our numbers Flaminia have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and San Donato Tavarnelle 44%.
How many goals will there be in Flaminia vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Flaminia vs San Donato Tavarnelle?
Flaminia vs San Donato Tavarnelle (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.