Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Ternana to win @ 1.91 – our chance 58% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTernana to win ✗58% · @1.91
Double chanceTernana or draw ✗84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.65
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗64% · @1.62
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗20% · fair 5.01
Mezzolara vs Ternana preview and prediction
The match
The Serie D Girone E sees Mezzolara take on Ternana on Wednesday 16 September, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT). Mezzolara are 14th with 11 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Ternana sit 3rd on 21 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Ternana's last 5: DLLDL Most recently they drew with Gavorrano 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.6 for Mezzolara and 1.4 for Ternana. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Ternana to win at 1.91 – 58% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ternana or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Mezzolara 0–1 Ternana. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mezzolara16%fair 6.14 · @3.60
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.20
Ternana58%fair 1.72 · @1.91
1.93Expected goals
0.56Mezzolara xG
1.37Ternana xG
39%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–120%
0–015%
0–214%
1–111%
1–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Mezzolara 0.6 – 1.4 Ternana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ternana to win✗
58%
1.72
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Ternana or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.22
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.02
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ternana / FT Ternana✗
34%
2.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
20%
5.01
–
Form
Mezzolara – last 2
LD
12 Sep
@ Robur Siena
0–3
L
6 Sep
vs Rondinella
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ternana – last 6
DLLDLD
12 Sep
vs Gavorrano
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Prato
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Pianese
1–3
L
12 Apr
vs Perugia
2–2
D
8 Apr
@ Juventus U23
1–2
L
20 Mar
vs Sambenedettese
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mezzolara and Ternana.
Our pick is Ternana or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Mezzolara vs Ternana?
On our numbers Mezzolara have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Ternana 58%.
How many goals will there be in Mezzolara vs Ternana?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mezzolara vs Ternana?
Our predicted score is Mezzolara 0–1 Ternana, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Mezzolara vs Ternana?
Mezzolara vs Ternana (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
