Serie D Girone E · ItalySeravezza vs Montevarchi Calcio prediction & analysis
Seravezza to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.69 · bookmaker 1.70 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.30 – our chance 51% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Seravezza 2.1 – 1.1 Montevarchi Calcio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Seravezza hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 19% for Montevarchi Calcio.
Seravezza have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (2W 3D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 per game. Montevarchi Calcio have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 3.2 goals (2.1 for Seravezza, 1.1 for Montevarchi Calcio). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 1–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%).
Our pick is Seravezza to win at a 59% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.70 is close to our fair price of 1.69. For a bigger price, Over 2.5 goals at 2.30 is our value angle (51% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Seravezza to win ✗ | 59% | 1.69 | 1.70 |
| Double chance | Seravezza or draw ✓ | 81% | 1.23 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.98 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 82% | 1.21 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | 2.30 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Half-time result | Seravezza ahead at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.26 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Seravezza / FT Seravezza ✗ | 38% | 2.62 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.10 | – |
Form
Seravezza – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Lucchese | 5–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ San Donato Tavarnelle | 1–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | vs Pistoiese | 0–0 | D |
| 17 May | @ Prato | 2–1 | W |
| 3 May | @ San Donato Tavarnelle | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Apr | vs Foligno Calcio | 0–0 | D |
Montevarchi Calcio – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Tau Altopascio | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Lucchese | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Aug | vs Figline | 0–0 | D |
| 3 May | @ Prato | 0–1 | L |
| 19 Apr | @ Robur Siena | 0–0 | D |
| 2 Apr | @ Sansepolcro | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Seravezza and Montevarchi Calcio.
Serie D Girone E table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Seravezza vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Our pick is Seravezza to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Seravezza vs Montevarchi Calcio?
On our numbers Seravezza have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Montevarchi Calcio 19%.
How many goals will there be in Seravezza vs Montevarchi Calcio?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Seravezza vs Montevarchi Calcio?
Seravezza vs Montevarchi Calcio (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.