Serie D Girone E · Italy · Porta ElisaLucchese vs Progresso prediction & analysis
Lucchese to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 51% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Lucchese 2.1 – 0.9 Progresso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Lucchese are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 13% for Progresso.
Lucchese have taken 3 points from their last 2 matches (1W 0D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 3.0 per game. Progresso have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded. Progresso come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.0 goals (2.1 for Lucchese, 0.9 for Progresso). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–0 (11%), 1–0 (11%), 2–1 (10%).
Our pick is Lucchese to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.48 is close to our fair price of 1.52. For a bigger price, Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 is our value angle (51% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Lucchese to win ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.48 |
| Double chance | Lucchese or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.11 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 50% | 1.99 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | 2.10 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 65% | 1.54 | – |
| Half-time result | Lucchese ahead at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Lucchese / FT Lucchese ✓ | 43% | 2.31 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.73 | – |
Form
Lucchese – last 2
| 12 Sep | @ Seravezza | 0–5 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Montevarchi Calcio | 2–1 | W |
Progresso – last 6
| 12 Sep | vs Scandicci | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | @ Tau Altopascio | 1–2 | L |
| 3 May | vs Sasso Marconi Zola | 4–1 | W |
| 26 Apr | @ Sant'Angelo | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Apr | @ Lentigione | 2–1 | W |
| 2 Apr | @ Tuttocuoio | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lucchese and Progresso.
Serie D Girone E table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Prato | 11 | +13 | 25 |
| 2 |  Robur Siena | 11 | +14 | 22 |
| 3 |  Ternana | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 4 |  Gavorrano | 11 | +7 | 21 |
| 5 |  Flaminia | 11 | +2 | 19 |
| 6 |  Lucchese | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 7 |  Terranuova Traiana | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tau Altopascio | 11 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Montevarchi Calcio | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 10 |  Seravezza | 11 | +5 | 15 |
| 11 |  Scandicci | 11 | +3 | 15 |
| 12 |  San Donato Tavarnelle | 11 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 |  Sasso Marconi Zola | 11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 |  Mezzolara | 11 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Rondinella | 11 | -8 | 10 |
| 16 |  Grassina | 11 | -11 | 7 |
| 17 |  Progresso | 11 | -16 | 6 |
| 18 |  Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 11 | -16 | 3 |
More Serie D Girone E predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Lucchese vs Progresso?
Our pick is Lucchese to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Lucchese vs Progresso?
On our numbers Lucchese have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Progresso 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lucchese vs Progresso?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Lucchese vs Progresso?
Lucchese vs Progresso (Serie D Girone E) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Porta Elisa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.