Serie D Girone C · ItalyCalvi Noale vs Brian Lignano prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Fair pick · fair odds 1.82 · bookmaker 1.67 · Won ✓
Value bet: Brian Lignano to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Calvi Noale 1.3 – 1.2 Brian Lignano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Calvi Noale and Brian Lignano on our numbers – 41% for the home side, 35% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Calvi Noale have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 0.7 and conceding 0.5 per game. Brian Lignano have 6 points from their last 6 (2W 0D 4L), averaging 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. Calvi Noale come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Calvi Noale, 1.2 for Brian Lignano). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 55% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.67 is close to our fair price of 1.82. For a bigger price, Brian Lignano to win at 3.10 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Calvi Noale to win ✗ | 41% | 2.42 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.95 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 72% | 1.39 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.82 | 1.67 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.33 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Calvi Noale / FT Calvi Noale ✗ | 23% | 4.33 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.40 | – |
Form
Calvi Noale – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Legnago Salus | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Schio | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | @ Triestina | 1–1 | D |
| 6 Sep | vs Mestre | 0–2 | L |
| 3 May | @ Bassano Virtus | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Apr | vs Campodarsego | 1–0 | W |
Brian Lignano – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Clodiense | 3–5 | L |
| 16 Sep | @ Sandona | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Virtus Bolzano | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Este | 0–2 | L |
| 3 May | @ Adriese | 4–0 | W |
| 19 Apr | @ Vigasio | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Calvi Noale and Brian Lignano.
Serie D Girone C table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cjarlins Muzane | 11 | +12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Luparense | 11 | +12 | 21 |
| 3 |  Sandona | 11 | +5 | 19 |
| 4 |  Clodiense | 11 | +3 | 19 |
| 5 |  Campodarsego | 11 | +3 | 18 |
| 6 |  Mestre | 11 | +4 | 17 |
| 7 |  Legnago Salus | 11 | +3 | 16 |
| 8 |  Este | 11 | +1 | 16 |
| 9 |  Conegliano | 11 | -3 | 15 |
| 10 |  Bassano Virtus | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 |  FC Obermais | 11 | -2 | 13 |
| 12 |  Triestina | 11 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 |  LME | 11 | -4 | 13 |
| 14 |  Altavilla | 11 | +5 | 11 |
| 15 |  Virtus Bolzano | 11 | -16 | 11 |
| 16 |  Calvi Noale | 11 | -4 | 10 |
| 17 |  Schio | 11 | -5 | 8 |
| 18 |  Brian Lignano | 11 | -11 | 5 |
More Serie D Girone C predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Calvi Noale vs Brian Lignano?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Calvi Noale vs Brian Lignano?
On our numbers Calvi Noale have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Brian Lignano 35%.
How many goals will there be in Calvi Noale vs Brian Lignano?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Calvi Noale vs Brian Lignano?
Calvi Noale vs Brian Lignano (Serie D Girone C) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.