Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Penarol or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Penarol to win @ 1.88 – our chance 59% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultPenarol to win ✗59% · @1.88
Double chancePenarol or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.48
Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Deportivo Maldonado take on Penarol on Saturday 22 August, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT). Deportivo Maldonado are 4th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Penarol sit 5th on 22 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Deportivo Maldonado's last 5: WDDLD Most recently they beat Progreso 2–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Penarol's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Central Espanol 2–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Penarol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 23 February 2026, finished Penarol 2–1 Deportivo Maldonado.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.8 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.7 for Penarol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Penarol to win at 1.88 – 59% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Penarol or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 Penarol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Maldonado16%fair 6.14 · @3.95
Draw25%fair 4.03 · @3.30
Penarol59%fair 1.70 · @1.88
2.53Expected goals
0.80Deportivo Maldonado xG
1.73Penarol xG
53%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–212%
1–111%
1–210%
0–08%
0–37%
From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 0.8 – 1.7 Penarol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
Our pick is Penarol or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Penarol 59%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Maldonado 0–1 Penarol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol?
Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
