Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Coventry to win @ 1.70 – our chance 65% vs 59% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCoventry to win ✓65% · @1.70
Double chanceCoventry or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.53
Plymouth vs Coventry preview and prediction
The match
Plymouth host Coventry in the League Cup on Tuesday 25 August, with kick-off at 19:45 (WAT) at Home Park.
Form guide
Plymouth's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Wycombe 1–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Coventry's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Arsenal 0–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Plymouth and 1.8 for Coventry. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Coventry to win at 1.70 – 65% on our numbers against 59% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Coventry or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Plymouth 0–1 Coventry. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Plymouth13%fair 7.72 · @4.45
Draw22%fair 4.52 · @3.90
Coventry65%fair 1.54 · @1.70
2.47Expected goals
0.66Plymouth xG
1.81Coventry xG
57%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–214%
1–110%
1–29%
0–08%
0–38%
From our goals model: Plymouth 0.7 – 1.8 Coventry expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Coventry to win✓
65%
1.54
1.70 ▲
Double chance
Coventry or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.98
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.45
Half-time result
Coventry ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Coventry / FT Coventry✓
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.53
–
Form
Plymouth – last 6
DLWWDW
22 Aug
@ Wycombe
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Stockport County
1–3
L
10 Aug
vs Exeter City
2–0
W
4 Aug
@ Tavistock
4–1
W
1 Aug
vs Bristol City
0–0
D
25 Jul
@ Truro City
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Coventry – last 6
LWWDWW
21 Aug
@ Arsenal
0–3
L
14 Aug
vs Monaco
2–0
W
8 Aug
vs Espanyol
3–1
W
18 Jul
@ Northampton
0–0
D
2 May
@ Watford
4–0
W
26 Apr
vs Wrexham
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Plymouth and Coventry.
Our pick is Coventry or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Plymouth vs Coventry?
On our numbers Plymouth have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Coventry 65%.
How many goals will there be in Plymouth vs Coventry?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Plymouth vs Coventry?
Our predicted score is Plymouth 0–1 Coventry, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Plymouth vs Coventry?
Plymouth vs Coventry (League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Home Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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