Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 60% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewcastle to win ✓68% · @1.33
Double chanceNewcastle or draw ✓86% · @1.07
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.88
Newcastle vs West Brom preview and prediction
The match
The League Cup sees Newcastle take on West Brom on Wednesday 26 August, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at St James' Park.
Form guide
Newcastle's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Liverpool 2–2 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
West Brom's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Burnley 3–1 at home. On the road they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.2 per game.
West Brom arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.1 goals: 2.8 for Newcastle and 1.3 for West Brom. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newcastle 68%, draw 18%, West Brom 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.80 – 60% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.50, above our fair price of 1.43, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Newcastle 2–1 West Brom. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newcastle68%fair 1.48 · @1.33
Draw18%fair 5.48 · @5.00
West Brom14%fair 7.07 · @8.40
4.11Expected goals
2.81Newcastle xG
1.30West Brom xG
60%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–18%
3–18%
2–06%
3–06%
1–16%
4–16%
From our goals model: Newcastle 2.8 – 1.3 West Brom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newcastle to win✓
68%
1.48
1.33
Double chance
Newcastle or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.65
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.50 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
1.60
Half-time result
Newcastle ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Newcastle / FT Newcastle✗
47%
2.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.88
–
Form
Newcastle – last 6
DDLLWL
23 Aug
vs Liverpool
2–2
D
16 Aug
vs Strasbourg
1–1
D
15 Aug
vs Bayer Leverkusen
1–2
L
12 Aug
vs Everton
1–3
L
8 Aug
@ Valencia
2–1
W
29 Jul
@ Bristol City
1–4
L
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
West Brom – last 6
WWWWWW
23 Aug
vs Burnley
3–1
W
15 Aug
@ Norwich
2–1
W
8 Aug
@ Rotherham
4–1
W
1 Aug
@ Peterborough
2–0
W
25 Jul
@ Shrewsbury
4–1
W
17 Jul
vs Bromley
4–1
W
3.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Newcastle and West Brom.
What is the prediction for Newcastle vs West Brom?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Newcastle vs West Brom?
On our numbers Newcastle have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 18% and West Brom 14%.
How many goals will there be in Newcastle vs West Brom?
We expect about 4.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newcastle vs West Brom?
Our predicted score is Newcastle 2–1 West Brom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.1 goals in total.
When is Newcastle vs West Brom?
Newcastle vs West Brom (League Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 26 August 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at St James' Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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