Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Brentford to win @ 1.87 – our chance 66% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBrentford to win ✓66% · @1.87
Double chanceBrentford or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.76
Birmingham vs Brentford preview and prediction
The match
Brentford travel to St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park in the League Cup on Tuesday 25 August (20:00 WAT) to face Birmingham.
Form guide
Birmingham's last 5: DDWDW Most recently they drew with Bristol City 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Brentford's last 5: WWWDD Most recently they beat Tottenham 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.5 for Birmingham and 1.5 for Brentford. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 56% likely. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Brentford to win at 1.87 – 66% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Brentford or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Birmingham 0–1 Brentford. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Birmingham14%fair 7.37 · @3.85
Draw21%fair 4.78 · @3.65
Brentford66%fair 1.53 · @1.87
1.97Expected goals
0.47Birmingham xG
1.50Brentford xG
53%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–216%
0–014%
1–110%
0–38%
1–27%
From our goals model: Birmingham 0.5 – 1.5 Brentford expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brentford to win✓
66%
1.53
1.87 ▲
Double chance
Brentford or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.88
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
56%
1.78
2.15 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.45 ▲
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brentford / FT Brentford✓
38%
2.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
21%
4.76
–
Form
Birmingham – last 6
DDWDWW
22 Aug
vs Bristol City
2–2
D
15 Aug
@ Sheffield Utd
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Swansea
1–0
W
31 Jul
vs Barcelona
2–2
D
25 Jul
@ Crewe
2–1
W
22 Jul
@ Burton Albion
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Brentford – last 6
WWWDDL
22 Aug
vs Tottenham
3–0
W
15 Aug
vs Eintracht Frankfurt
7–0
W
8 Aug
@ Rennes
4–2
W
24 May
@ Liverpool
1–1
D
17 May
vs Crystal Palace
2–2
D
27 Apr
@ Manchester United
1–2
L
3.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Birmingham and Brentford.
What is the prediction for Birmingham vs Brentford?
Our pick is Brentford or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Birmingham vs Brentford?
On our numbers Birmingham have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Brentford 66%.
How many goals will there be in Birmingham vs Brentford?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Birmingham vs Brentford?
Our predicted score is Birmingham 0–1 Brentford, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Birmingham vs Brentford?
Birmingham vs Brentford (League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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