Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo prediction & analysis
64%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Liverpool Montevideo to win @ 2.78 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultLiverpool Montevideo to win ✓39% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗82% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.91
Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Defensor Sporting take on Liverpool Montevideo on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Luis Franzini. Defensor Sporting are 13th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Liverpool Montevideo sit 1st on 30 points (top of the table). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Defensor Sporting's last 5: LWLDL Most recently they lost to Wanderers 0–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Liverpool Montevideo's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Albion FC 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Liverpool Montevideo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 21 July 2026, finished Defensor Sporting 1–2 Liverpool Montevideo. Across their last 2 meetings Defensor Sporting have won 1, Liverpool Montevideo 1, with 0 draws and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 2 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Defensor Sporting and 1.1 for Liverpool Montevideo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Defensor Sporting 36%, draw 25%, Liverpool Montevideo 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Liverpool Montevideo to win at 2.78 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 64% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensor Sporting36%fair 2.80 · @2.52
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.00
Liverpool Montevideo39%fair 2.58 · @2.78
2.07Expected goals
1.01Defensor Sporting xG
1.06Liverpool Montevideo xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–114%
0–113%
1–013%
0–013%
1–27%
0–27%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.0 – 1.1 Liverpool Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Liverpool Montevideo 39%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–1 Liverpool Montevideo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo?
Defensor Sporting vs Liverpool Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
