Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado preview and prediction
The match
The Primera División Apertura sees Progreso take on Deportivo Maldonado on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Parque Abraham Paladino. Progreso are 7th with 19 points from 13 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Maldonado sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Progreso's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Central Espanol 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Deportivo Maldonado's last 5: DDLDW Most recently they drew with Racing Montevideo 2–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Deportivo Maldonado arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 18 July 2026, finished Progreso 1–0 Deportivo Maldonado.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.0 for Progreso and 1.5 for Deportivo Maldonado. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Progreso 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Progreso29%fair 3.48 · @3.65
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @3.20
Deportivo Maldonado49%fair 2.03 · @1.98
2.48Expected goals
1.03Progreso xG
1.46Deportivo Maldonado xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–09%
0–08%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.0 – 1.5 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Progreso have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportivo Maldonado 49%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Progreso vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
