Derde Divisie Saturday · NetherlandsExcelsior Maassluis vs EVV prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.39 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Excelsior Maassluis 2.4 – 1.2 EVV expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Excelsior Maassluis are clear favourites at home with a 63% chance of winning, against 15% for EVV.
Excelsior Maassluis have taken 18 points from their last 6 matches (6W 0D 0L), scoring 2.7 and conceding 0.7 per game. EVV have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. Excelsior Maassluis come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.6 goals (2.4 for Excelsior Maassluis, 1.2 for EVV). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (8%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.39.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Excelsior Maassluis to win ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.36 |
| Double chance | Excelsior Maassluis or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 55% | 1.82 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 87% | 1.15 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.91 | – |
| Half-time result | Excelsior Maassluis ahead at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Excelsior Maassluis / FT Excelsior Maassluis ✗ | 42% | 2.36 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.52 | – |
Form
Excelsior Maassluis – last 6
| 17 Oct | @ Zwaluwen | 2–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs TOGB | 3–2 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Vvsb | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Blauw Geel | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | @ Sportlust '46 | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Roosendaal | 5–0 | W |
EVV – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Roosendaal | 3–3 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Achilles Veen | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Oct | vs Noordwijk | 0–2 | L |
| 26 Sep | @ FC Lisse | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Sep | vs Halsteren | 3–1 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Groene Ster | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excelsior Maassluis and EVV.
Derde Divisie Saturday table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ACV | 12 | +19 | 27 |
| 2 |  VV Scherpenzeel | 12 | +10 | 27 |
| 3 |  Harkemase Boys | 12 | +9 | 26 |
| 4 |  TEC | 12 | +15 | 24 |
| 5 |  Excelsior '31 | 12 | +12 | 22 |
| 6 |  SC Genemuiden | 12 | +6 | 22 |
| 7 |  Sportlust '46 | 12 | +3 | 22 |
| 8 |  Purmersteijn | 12 | +7 | 21 |
| 9 |  Sparta Nijkerk | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 10 |  ADO '20 | 12 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Hercules | 12 | -6 | 16 |
| 12 |  Hoogeveen | 12 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 |  Eemdijk | 12 | -12 | 13 |
| 14 |  DVS 33 Ermelo | 12 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 |  Staphorst | 12 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 |  Hollandia | 12 | -13 | 8 |
| 17 |  Dovo | 12 | -13 | 7 |
| 18 |  SVZW | 12 | -21 | 1 |
| 1 |  FC Lisse | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 2 |  Noordwijk | 12 | +22 | 31 |
| 3 |  Excelsior Maassluis | 12 | +13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Rijnvogels | 12 | +16 | 24 |
| 5 |  Zwaluwen | 12 | 0 | 22 |
| 6 |  Poortugaal | 12 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  UDI '19 | 12 | +9 | 20 |
| 8 |  GOES | 12 | -4 | 17 |
| 9 |  Gemert | 11 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 |  Dongen | 12 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 |  Blauw Geel | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 12 |  TOGB | 12 | -7 | 12 |
| 13 |  Roosendaal | 11 | -5 | 11 |
| 14 |  UNA | 12 | -6 | 11 |
| 15 |  Vvsb | 12 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 |  Groene Ster | 12 | -17 | 9 |
| 17 |  Achilles Veen | 12 | -20 | 6 |
| 18 |  EVV | 12 | -14 | 3 |
More Derde Divisie Saturday predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Excelsior Maassluis vs EVV?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs EVV?
On our numbers Excelsior Maassluis have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and EVV 15%.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior Maassluis vs EVV?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
When is Excelsior Maassluis vs EVV?
Excelsior Maassluis vs EVV (Derde Divisie Saturday) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.