Value bet: Excelsior Maassluis to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNoordwijk to win ✗45% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✗81% · fair 1.24
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · fair 2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 10.35
Excelsior Maassluis vs Noordwijk preview and prediction
The match
Noordwijk travel to face Excelsior Maassluis in the Derde Divisie Saturday on Saturday 5 September (13:30 WAT). Excelsior Maassluis are 3rd with 26 points from 12 games (in the top four), while Noordwijk sit 2nd on 31 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Excelsior Maassluis's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with ADO '20 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Noordwijk's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat GOES 1–0 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Noordwijk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.4 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Excelsior Maassluis and 1.5 for Noordwijk. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 50%.
Value angle: Excelsior Maassluis to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 55% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Excelsior Maassluis 1–2 Noordwijk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Excelsior Maassluis36%fair 2.81 · @3.00
Draw19%fair 5.15 · @3.60
Noordwijk45%fair 2.22 · @2.00
2.72Expected goals
1.26Excelsior Maassluis xG
1.46Noordwijk xG
50%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–110%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Excelsior Maassluis 1.3 – 1.5 Noordwijk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Noordwijk to win✗
45%
2.22
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✗
81%
1.24
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.80
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Noordwijk / FT Noordwijk✗
25%
4.05
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
10.35
–
Form
Excelsior Maassluis – last 6
DLWDWL
1 Sep
@ ADO '20
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ FC Lisse
0–1
L
22 Aug
vs Groene Ster
3–1
W
15 Aug
@ UDI '19
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Sparta Rotterdam II
4–2
W
13 Jun
@ Ijsselmeervogels
0–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Noordwijk – last 5
WWWWL
2 Sep
@ GOES
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Roosendaal
1–0
W
22 Aug
@ Achilles Veen
4–0
W
15 Aug
vs Blauw Geel
2–0
W
8 Aug
vs De Treffers
2–3
L
2.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excelsior Maassluis and Noordwijk.
What is the prediction for Excelsior Maassluis vs Noordwijk?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 55% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Excelsior Maassluis vs Noordwijk?
On our numbers Excelsior Maassluis have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Noordwijk 45%.
How many goals will there be in Excelsior Maassluis vs Noordwijk?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Excelsior Maassluis vs Noordwijk?
Our predicted score is Excelsior Maassluis 1–2 Noordwijk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Excelsior Maassluis vs Noordwijk?
Excelsior Maassluis vs Noordwijk (Derde Divisie Saturday) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
