Value bet: Aluminium Arak to win @ 2.71 – our chance 45% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAluminium Arak to win ✗45% · @2.71
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.35
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.46
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · @1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗18% · fair 5.53
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Aluminium Arak preview and prediction
The match
Shams Azar Qazvin host Aluminium Arak in the Persian Gulf Pro League on Sunday 23 August, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Sardar Azadegan Stadium. Shams Azar Qazvin are 17th with 7 points from 11 games (in the bottom three), while Aluminium Arak sit 6th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Shams Azar Qazvin's last 5: DLLLD Most recently they drew with Foolad FC 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Aluminium Arak's last 4: DWDD Most recently they drew with Chadormalu SC 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aluminium Arak arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.4.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 13 February 2026, finished Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Aluminium Arak.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.7 for Shams Azar Qazvin and 1.0 for Aluminium Arak. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Aluminium Arak to win at 2.71 – 45% on our numbers against 37% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.27. Predicted score: Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Aluminium Arak. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shams Azar Qazvin30%fair 3.33 · @2.71
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.71
Aluminium Arak45%fair 2.23 · @2.71
1.68Expected goals
0.71Shams Azar Qazvin xG
0.98Aluminium Arak xG
46%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
0–118%
1–013%
1–113%
0–29%
1–26%
From our goals model: Shams Azar Qazvin 0.7 – 1.0 Aluminium Arak expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Shams Azar Qazvin vs Aluminium Arak?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.27.
Who will win Shams Azar Qazvin vs Aluminium Arak?
On our numbers Shams Azar Qazvin have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aluminium Arak 45%.
How many goals will there be in Shams Azar Qazvin vs Aluminium Arak?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shams Azar Qazvin vs Aluminium Arak?
Our predicted score is Shams Azar Qazvin 0–0 Aluminium Arak, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Shams Azar Qazvin vs Aluminium Arak?
Shams Azar Qazvin vs Aluminium Arak (Persian Gulf Pro League) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Sardar Azadegan Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
