Value bet: Torrijos to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultTarancón to win ✗40% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗20% · fair 4.99
Torrijos vs Tarancón preview and prediction
The match
Torrijos host Tarancón in the Tercera División RFEF Group 18 on Sunday 13 September, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT). Torrijos are 10th with 14 points from 10 games (in the bottom half), while Tarancón sit 7th on 15 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Tarancón's last 5: LDLLW Most recently they lost to Illescas 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.6 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.0 goals: 0.5 for Torrijos and 0.5 for Tarancón. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Torrijos to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Torrijos 0–0 Tarancón. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Torrijos33%fair 2.99 · @3.30
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @2.70
Tarancón40%fair 2.53 · @2.25
1.00Expected goals
0.46Torrijos xG
0.54Tarancón xG
43%Both score
8%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–037%
0–120%
1–017%
1–19%
0–25%
2–04%
From our goals model: Torrijos 0.5 – 0.5 Tarancón expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tarancón to win✗
40%
2.53
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
98%
1.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
68%
1.48
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
20%
4.99
–
Form
Torrijos – last 1
W
5 Sep
@ Guadalajara II
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Tarancón – last 5
LDLLW
5 Sep
vs Illescas
0–1
L
17 May
@ Manchego
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Villarrubia
1–2
L
15 Mar
@ Calvo Sotelo
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Illescas
2–1
W
0.6Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Torrijos and Tarancón.
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Torrijos vs Tarancón?
On our numbers Torrijos have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Tarancón 40%.
How many goals will there be in Torrijos vs Tarancón?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Torrijos vs Tarancón?
Our predicted score is Torrijos 0–0 Tarancón, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.
When is Torrijos vs Tarancón?
Torrijos vs Tarancón (Tercera División RFEF Group 18) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
