Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Ospitaletto to win @ 1.80 – our chance 65% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultOspitaletto to win ✗65% · @1.80
Double chanceOspitaletto or draw ✗89% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗24% · fair 4.22
Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese preview and prediction
The match
Ospitaletto host Pergolettese in the Serie C Girone A on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 16:30 (WAT) at Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni. Ospitaletto are 4th with 22 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Pergolettese sit 10th on 17 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Ospitaletto's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Treviso 1–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Pergolettese's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Athletic Carpi 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Ospitaletto and 0.4 for Pergolettese. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely.
Value angle: Ospitaletto to win at 1.80 – 65% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Ospitaletto or draw – a 89% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Ospitaletto 1–0 Pergolettese. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ospitaletto65%fair 1.55 · @1.80
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.00
Pergolettese11%fair 8.99 · @4.20
1.78Expected goals
1.40Ospitaletto xG
0.38Pergolettese xG
49%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
0–017%
2–017%
1–19%
3–08%
0–16%
From our goals model: Ospitaletto 1.4 – 0.4 Pergolettese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ospitaletto to win✗
65%
1.55
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Ospitaletto or draw✗
89%
1.13
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ospitaletto / FT Ospitaletto✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
24%
4.22
–
Form
Ospitaletto – last 6
WDWLDW
11 Oct
@ Treviso
1–0
W
3 Oct
vs Renate
1–1
D
26 Sep
@ Novara
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Cittadella
0–1
L
17 Sep
@ Athletic Carpi
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Juventus U23
3–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Pergolettese – last 6
WDDDDW
10 Oct
vs Athletic Carpi
2–1
W
3 Oct
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
2–2
D
26 Sep
vs Trento
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Lecco
0–0
D
17 Sep
vs Folgore Caratese
0–0
D
13 Sep
@ Novara
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ospitaletto and Pergolettese.
What is the prediction for Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?
Our pick is Ospitaletto or draw with a 89% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?
On our numbers Ospitaletto have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Pergolettese 11%.
How many goals will there be in Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?
Our predicted score is Ospitaletto 1–0 Pergolettese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese?
Ospitaletto vs Pergolettese (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Comunale Gino Corioni.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
