Value bet: Desenzano Calvina to win @ 3.30 – our chance 36% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFolgore Caratese to win ✗38% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.29
Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina preview and prediction
The match
Folgore Caratese host Desenzano Calvina in the Serie C Girone A on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT). Folgore Caratese are 20th with 8 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Desenzano Calvina sit 13th on 13 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Folgore Caratese's last 5: WDDLL Most recently they beat Lumezzane 2–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Desenzano Calvina's last 5: DDLWL Most recently they drew with Juventus U23 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Folgore Caratese and 1.0 for Desenzano Calvina. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely.
Value angle: Desenzano Calvina to win at 3.30 – 36% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Folgore Caratese 1–0 Desenzano Calvina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Folgore Caratese38%fair 2.64 · @2.10
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.80
Desenzano Calvina36%fair 2.75 · @3.30
2.00Expected goals
1.01Folgore Caratese xG
0.99Desenzano Calvina xG
50%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
0–014%
1–114%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Folgore Caratese 1.0 – 1.0 Desenzano Calvina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Folgore Caratese to win✗
38%
2.64
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.29
–
Form
Folgore Caratese – last 6
WDDLLD
26 Sep
@ Lumezzane
2–1
W
20 Sep
vs Giana Erminio
1–1
D
17 Sep
@ Pergolettese
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Alcione
2–3
L
7 Sep
@ PRO Vercelli
0–1
L
31 Aug
@ Novara
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Desenzano Calvina – last 6
DDLWLW
26 Sep
vs Juventus U23
0–0
D
21 Sep
@ Treviso
0–0
D
17 Sep
vs Lecco
1–3
L
13 Sep
@ Arzignano Valchiampo
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Union Brescia
0–1
L
3 Sep
@ Trento
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Folgore Caratese and Desenzano Calvina.
What is the prediction for Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
On our numbers Folgore Caratese have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Desenzano Calvina 36%.
How many goals will there be in Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our predicted score is Folgore Caratese 1–0 Desenzano Calvina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina?
Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
