Serie C Girone A · Italy · Stadio Silvio PiolaNovara vs Ospitaletto prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Ospitaletto to win @ 2.88 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Novara 1.2 – 1.2 Ospitaletto expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Novara and Ospitaletto on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Novara have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (1W 4D 1L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 per game. Ospitaletto have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.8 conceded. Ospitaletto come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.2 for Novara, 1.2 for Ospitaletto). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 51%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (10%).
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.34. For a bigger price, Ospitaletto to win at 2.88 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Novara to win ✗ | 38% | 2.61 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.83 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.41 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.83 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 75% | 1.34 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 44% | 2.25 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Novara / FT Novara ✗ | 21% | 4.75 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 9.50 | – |
Form
Novara – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Athletic Carpi | 2–2 | D |
| 17 Sep | @ Lumezzane | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Pergolettese | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sep | @ Renate | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sep | vs Livorno | 0–0 | D |
| 31 Aug | vs Folgore Caratese | 2–2 | D |
Ospitaletto – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Cittadella | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Sep | @ Athletic Carpi | 2–2 | D |
| 13 Sep | vs Juventus U23 | 3–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Arzignano Valchiampo | 3–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Albinoleffe | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Aug | vs Lumezzane | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Ospitaletto.
Serie C Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cittadella | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 2 |  Union Brescia | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  Trento | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 |  Treviso | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Lecco | 13 | +11 | 20 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 9 |  Albinoleffe | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Pergolettese | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 13 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 |  PRO Vercelli | 13 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 |  Desenzano Calvina | 13 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Novara | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 15 |  Athletic Carpi | 13 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 |  Giana Erminio | 13 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 |  Renate | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 13 | -10 | 8 |
More Serie C Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Novara vs Ospitaletto?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Novara vs Ospitaletto?
On our numbers Novara have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ospitaletto 38%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Ospitaletto?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Novara vs Ospitaletto?
Novara vs Ospitaletto (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.