Serie C Girone A · Italy · Stadio Pier Cesare TombolatoCittadella vs Lecco prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.30 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
Value bet: Cittadella to win @ 1.75 – our chance 65% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Cittadella 1.6 – 0.5 Lecco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Cittadella are clear favourites at home with a 65% chance of winning, against 13% for Lecco.
Cittadella have taken 18 points from their last 6 matches (6W 0D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Lecco have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. Cittadella come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (1.6 for Cittadella, 0.5 for Lecco). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 57% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 1–0 (19%), 2–0 (15%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Cittadella have won 1, Lecco have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is better than our fair price of 1.30, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Cittadella to win at 1.75 is our value angle (65% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Cittadella to win ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Double chance | Cittadella or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.83 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 68% | 1.47 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.75 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.33 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.18 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Cittadella / FT Cittadella ✗ | 39% | 2.55 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 19% | 5.25 | – |
Form
Cittadella – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Ospitaletto | 1–0 | W |
| 17 Sep | vs Juventus U23 | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Athletic Carpi | 2–1 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Lumezzane | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sep | vs Renate | 4–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Renate | 1–0 | W |
Lecco – last 6
| 20 Sep | vs Pergolettese | 0–0 | D |
| 17 Sep | @ Desenzano Calvina | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Giana Erminio | 1–0 | W |
| 7 Sep | @ Trento | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | @ Treviso | 0–1 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs Arzignano Valchiampo | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 29 Mar 2026 | Cittadella v Lecco | 2–1 |
Serie C Girone A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Cittadella | 13 | +13 | 31 |
| 2 |  Union Brescia | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |  Trento | 13 | +12 | 27 |
| 4 |  Ospitaletto | 13 | +8 | 22 |
| 5 |  Treviso | 13 | +5 | 22 |
| 6 |  Arzignano Valchiampo | 13 | +4 | 21 |
| 7 |  Lecco | 13 | +11 | 20 |
| 8 |  Alcione | 13 | +2 | 18 |
| 9 |  Albinoleffe | 13 | +1 | 17 |
| 10 |  Pergolettese | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 |  Lumezzane | 13 | -3 | 16 |
| 12 |  PRO Vercelli | 13 | -7 | 16 |
| 13 |  Desenzano Calvina | 13 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |  Novara | 13 | -7 | 13 |
| 15 |  Athletic Carpi | 13 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 |  Giana Erminio | 13 | -4 | 12 |
| 17 |  Renate | 13 | -1 | 11 |
| 18 |  Juventus U23 | 13 | -11 | 11 |
| 19 |  Dolomiti Bellunesi | 13 | -12 | 10 |
| 20 |  Folgore Caratese | 13 | -10 | 8 |
More Serie C Girone A predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Cittadella vs Lecco?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Cittadella vs Lecco?
On our numbers Cittadella have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Lecco 13%.
How many goals will there be in Cittadella vs Lecco?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
When is Cittadella vs Lecco?
Cittadella vs Lecco (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.