Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Novara to win @ 1.91 – our chance 60% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNovara to win ✗60% · @1.91
Double chanceNovara or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.14
Novara vs Athletic Carpi preview and prediction
The match
Athletic Carpi travel to Stadio Silvio Piola in the Serie C Girone A on Sunday 20 September (13:30 WAT) to face Novara. Novara are 14th with 13 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Athletic Carpi sit 15th on 13 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Novara's last 5: DLWDD Most recently they drew with Lumezzane 0–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Athletic Carpi's last 5: DLWDD Most recently they drew with Ospitaletto 2–2 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for Novara and 0.9 for Athletic Carpi. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Novara to win at 1.91 – 60% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Novara or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Novara 1–0 Athletic Carpi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Novara60%fair 1.66 · @1.91
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.00
Athletic Carpi18%fair 5.56 · @3.60
2.70Expected goals
1.83Novara xG
0.87Athletic Carpi xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
0–07%
From our goals model: Novara 1.8 – 0.9 Athletic Carpi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Novara to win✗
60%
1.66
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Novara or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
Novara ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Novara / FT Novara✗
38%
2.66
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.14
–
Form
Novara – last 6
DLWDDL
17 Sep
@ Lumezzane
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Pergolettese
0–1
L
7 Sep
@ Renate
2–1
W
3 Sep
vs Livorno
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Folgore Caratese
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Juventus U23
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Athletic Carpi – last 6
DLWDDL
17 Sep
vs Ospitaletto
2–2
D
13 Sep
vs Cittadella
1–2
L
6 Sep
@ Albinoleffe
1–0
W
2 Sep
vs PRO Vercelli
1–1
D
30 Aug
vs Juventus U23
3–3
D
21 Aug
@ Union Brescia
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Novara and Athletic Carpi.
What is the prediction for Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
Our pick is Novara or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
On our numbers Novara have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Athletic Carpi 18%.
How many goals will there be in Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
Our predicted score is Novara 1–0 Athletic Carpi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Novara vs Athletic Carpi?
Novara vs Athletic Carpi (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Silvio Piola.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
