Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Union Brescia to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.60 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.60Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion Brescia to win ✓66% · @1.60
Double chanceUnion Brescia or draw ✓90% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓25% · fair 4.07
Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina preview and prediction
The match
Desenzano Calvina travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti in the Serie C Girone A on Sunday 6 September (20:00 WAT) to face Union Brescia. Union Brescia are 2nd with 28 points from 13 games (in the top four), while Desenzano Calvina sit 13th on 13 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Union Brescia's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Giana Erminio 5–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Desenzano Calvina's last 5: WDDDL Most recently they beat Trento 1–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Union Brescia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.4 for Union Brescia and 0.3 for Desenzano Calvina. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Union Brescia 66%, draw 24%, Desenzano Calvina 10%.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.60.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Union Brescia to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.60, above our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Union Brescia 1–0 Desenzano Calvina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Union Brescia66%fair 1.52 · @1.60
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Desenzano Calvina10%fair 10.11 · @5.50
1.75Expected goals
1.41Union Brescia xG
0.34Desenzano Calvina xG
44%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–025%
0–017%
2–017%
1–18%
3–08%
0–16%
From our goals model: Union Brescia 1.4 – 0.3 Desenzano Calvina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Union Brescia to win✓
66%
1.52
1.60 ▲
Double chance
Union Brescia or draw✓
90%
1.11
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.79
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union Brescia / FT Union Brescia✓
39%
2.57
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
25%
4.07
–
Form
Union Brescia – last 6
WWWLDL
2 Sep
vs Giana Erminio
5–2
W
30 Aug
@ Pergolettese
1–0
W
21 Aug
vs Athletic Carpi
3–1
W
9 Aug
@ Arezzo
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ Pro Palazzolo
1–1
D
7 Jun
@ Ascoli
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Desenzano Calvina – last 6
WDDDLD
3 Sep
@ Trento
1–0
W
31 Aug
vs Trento
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ PRO Vercelli
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ Lecco
0–0
D
31 May
@ Scafatese
0–1
L
24 May
vs Scafatese
1–1
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Union Brescia and Desenzano Calvina.
What is the prediction for Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our pick is Union Brescia to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina?
On our numbers Union Brescia have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Desenzano Calvina 10%.
How many goals will there be in Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina?
Our predicted score is Union Brescia 1–0 Desenzano Calvina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina?
Union Brescia vs Desenzano Calvina (Serie C Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
